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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 9

Green Bay Packers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP