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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model