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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 87

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-T.Pepper. 7-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-81-T.Sherfield at JAX 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model