Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(2:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.89 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model