Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SF 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.99 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model