Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 91

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – New York Giants 10

(4:33) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to TB 49, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.00 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 91, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model