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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-95-Q.Roche.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model