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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP