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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NYG 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model