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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 55

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 89-K.Toney pushed ob at TB 48 for 7 yards (45-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model