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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model