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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 25

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model