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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 54

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to TB 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.40 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model