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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP