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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 14

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model