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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 16

New England Patriots 16 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.44 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model