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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 16
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 13
What Actually Happened
(:57) 30-Q.Ollison left guard to NE 16 for no gain (21-A.Phillips; 98-Ca. Davis).
The Three Options
GO
+3.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.02 EP
- 36% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
- 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
- 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT
+0.08 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
