Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 68

New England Patriots 13 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(11:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 19 for 11 yards (48-J.Tavai; 36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.82 EP
52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model