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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 56

New England Patriots 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model