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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model