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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to NYJ 21, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 21.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.73 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP