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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 36

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 6-M.Ammendola 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.64 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model