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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 51

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to MIA 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-16-J.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model