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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.56 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP