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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 41 – Buffalo Bills 15

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 35-De.Jackson up the middle to BUF 21 for 3 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.05 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP