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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. IND-49-M.Adams was injured during the play. M.Adams walks off.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.52 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model