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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 31 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model