Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 24

(14:39) 3-M.Haack punts 55 yards to IND 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines to IND 25 for 7 yards (69-R.Ferguson, 22-M.Breida).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model