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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-T.Bass 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model