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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 6-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model