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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model