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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-J.Berry punts 33 yards to GB 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.54 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model