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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model