Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 12. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 20 for 8 yards (41-H.Black).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model