4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to GB 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP