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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 90

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to SEA 49, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model