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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to GB 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 22 for 9 yards (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP