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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 83

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to GB 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 38 for 16 yards (58-T.Muse).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model