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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model