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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to SEA 38, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 87, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model