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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to GB 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 13 for no gain (29-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model