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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 34

Green Bay Packers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (22-T.Brown). Yard marker changed due to change in possession

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model