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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to GB 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 17 for 4 yards (19-P.Hart).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model