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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:55) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP