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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 88

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to NO 47, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Harris ran ob at TEN 49 for 4 yards (21-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 88, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model