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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 20 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model