4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 12 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to TEN 27, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model