Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 20 – New Orleans Saints 12

(2:27) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to NO 27, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model