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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 20 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to NO 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model