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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NO 34, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model